I've already trod on dangerous ground. We're on dangerous ground right now, because of our secrets and our lies. They're practically what define us.
When the truth offends, we lie and lie until we can no longer remember it is even there. But it is...still there. Every lie we tell incurs a debt to the truth. Sooner or later, that debt is paid.
That is how...an RBMK reactor core explodes: Lies.
— Valery Legasov, Chernobyl Miniseries: Open Wide, O Earth
I could go blue in the face discussing models.
When put from paper into practice, models produce systems that we rely on everyday which can recover from severe scenarios, and understanding these models is valuable, because while it’s not raining cats and dogs, it is raining tyrannical bullshit.
Given the current state of the world, resiliency is a topic I’m passionate about.
But my writing is guilty of jargon and excessive abstraction, and that framing isn’t always accessible to everyone. General audience writing is hard, and I appreciate everyone who takes the time to read these posts, so, the best remedy is a personal and relatable story, and a description of my personal approach addressing energy resiliency, which may help better explain the jargon and abstractions.
I recently described my personal journey to mitigate the corroding effects of our corrupted fiat currency, and while I couldn’t completely predict and protect myself from the madness of crowds, the nonsensical horror of the COVID era, my earlier preparations did pay off by neutralizing threatening propositions, and this is thanks to a few simple principles.
But still my preparations, so far, are short of what’s necessary.
The result outside the Convention was increased activity of the guillotine; the results inside were new measures against all who had money, and on June 22, 1793, the Convention determined that there should be a Forced Loan, secured on the confiscated lands of the emigrants and levied upon all married men with incomes of ten thousand francs, and upon all unmarried men with incomes of six thousand francs.
To spread terror, the Criminal Tribunal at Strassburg was ordered to destroy the dwelling of any one found guilty of selling goods above the price set by law.
— Fiat Money in France, Andrew Dickson White, pg. 38, 42
Inflation is accompanied by insanity.
Governments legislate against their own citizens, and tradition is seen as terrorism.
Like the scorpion that crossed the river, governments will devolve into tyranny, giving into temptations to use centralized systems for political power by reaching out and strangling constituents into compliance, because that’s just what they do. Every system you and I rely on, whether it be food, energy or general goods, is not exempt from this festering influence. While forming parallel economies is the ideal, it’s not practical at this instant, but developing alternative modes of operation, and an ability to survive outside these visibly rotting systems, is practical.
Parallel economies are not without their risks either.
The farmer often found that he could not raise his products at anything like the price required by the new law, and when he tried to hold back his crops or cattle, alleging that he could not afford to sell them at the prices fixed by law, they were frequently taken from him by force and he was fortunate if paid even in the depreciated fiat money,—fortunate, indeed, if he finally escaped with his life.
— Fiat Money in France, Andrew Dickson White, pg. 42
If history is a guide, then our destination, lured by the seductive song of the tyrant’s sirens, is a rocky one, and highly resilient preparations are not unwarranted, but only for those who have seen past the signs to survive. Fortunately, resiliency models used in highly available systems produce practical frameworks for energy preparedness.
In the spring of 2003, our area was plagued by frequent and annoying outages, and so my family decided to purchase a gas generator and install it through a household transfer panel, which could power select circuits during an outage. But after we purchased the generator, quite surprisingly, the neighbours came over to ask how much we spent; who then proceeded to ridicule and laugh at us. Yes, we were ridiculed by the neighbours for installing a home generator.
On Thursday, August 14, 2003, that changed. Blackout.
Little did we know, the northeastern / midwestern United States and Ontario were experiencing one of the largest widespread power outages in history. Fortunately, for us, we had our backup generator and plenty of fuel. Since it was summer, our only task was to stay cool and manage boredom, but the contents of our fridge and freezer were intact and we had well water / sewage. The neighbours were not so fortunate, and on the third day came over to ask for water, which we generously obliged, but their fridge and freezer contents were gone. A few weeks after power was restored, we noticed a lot of fancy new generators in the neighbourhood. Funny, eh.
Backups and redundancy seem ridiculous until you’re cold and dirty.
What caused the 2003 northeast blackout?
Well, turns out a software bug in the alarm system from an Ohio based company failed to notify operators to redistribute load after transmission lines drooped into foliage, and a local blackout subsequently cascaded into a widespread grid collapse. Power plants went into safe mode and stopped producing power, some areas lost water pressure and potentially contaminated water, 140 kg of vinyl chloride was accidentally released from a chemical plant, and transportation, as well as the just-in-time supply system, was disrupted. For communications, the internet was unavailable, cable was disabled, but radio and telephone were still functioning.
Bad outages exist, and it’s not uncommon for some people to be out for weeks.
Sometimes the apocalypse happens, but just to you.
Also consider that with increased automation, a cyber event could really wreck havoc…
How can we protect our households against massive service disruptions? This is what I described in a previous article by using defence in depth principles applied to household power levels. From nuclear electrical designs, an equivalent household model allows us to implement a scheme that protects us from these massive outages.
A resilience level is defined as a separate household system, which is composed of dedicated equipment that has a specific purpose and carries out limited functions for a certain period of time. These levels come into play when there’s a service disruption, and overlap for critical components in the event one level fails.
There are 4 resilience levels used as household operation modes.
Emergency operation mode.
(EPS equivalent)Low power operation mode.
(Class I / II equivalent)Off-grid operation mode.
(Class III equivalent)On-grid operation mode.
(Class IV equivalent)
Levels 1 through 4 are ordered by importance, but also by capacity, where emergency operation is not intended to cover the entire household, and off-grid operation covers less of the household than on-grid operation. Each level has a specific purpose. Higher levels aim to maintain standards of living, whereas lower levels aim to maintain health and safety, and recover back to higher levels.
This high-level framework is closer to requirements than design, and allows us to select specific technologies that satisfy the functionality of each level. Another important note, any selected technology should ideally not overlap between the levels, which is what’s called design diversity and mitigates common failure modes. Having separation between the levels, and functional redundancy, statistically increases the resiliency of the household.
Below is a table of systems for our household.
We selected kerosene for emergency heat, because it’s relatively easy to start, however fuel economy is not the greatest, it’s hard to get and the shelf-life is limited, so restricting its use to 3 days is the most practical. Propane was selected for low power, because the fuel stores longer and is cheaper than kerosene, which means it can run for a longer period of time. Also, running propane at low power means our vent fans will be working, which reduces the risk of combustion gases in the house. Having battery powered CO detectors and a good fire extinguisher is also important. Wood was selected for off-grid, because our property has an abundance of deadfall, which allows us to run it for a long period of time, and can be replaced after 10 - 15 years.
For back-up power, we’re relying on batteries, a gas generator and solar units. Each technology has a life-cycle and its own limitations, meaning we need to store enough fuel to last the specified amount of time while maintaining the equipment.
Again, the specific technologies are less important than the redundancy scheme.
While this may seem excessive, the variety allows us to switch between different types of systems in the event of compounding failure, except in the rare case where all systems fail, like a natural disaster or warfare. For example, if there’s an issue with the solar units or battery back-up there’s still the generator supply, and we also have an old functioning generator in the event there’s an issue with the good one.
Most of our appliances are electric, but having the ability to operate vent fans at low power or off-grid allows us to use butane cookstoves, and if it’s nice outside we could always use the barbecue, but if not then there’s the wood stove for cast iron pots and pans. Yes, it may be inconvenient, especially washing clothes, but we would have everything needed to get by for both short-term and long-term outages.
Getting to this level of resiliency is not a walk in the park, and we’re not fully there yet.
We have the emergency and (most of) the low power operation mode in place, but have yet to implement the off-grid systems, because this takes time, planning and obviously money. Planning for the amount of fuel to store and rotate is also on the list. Remember, this was a long journey for us, and our current state was reached only after consolidating into a multi-generational household and moving to a new location. Sacrifices were made by everyone, and some of us are still paying to make this lifestyle work, but we all agreed: this is the only feasible option moving forward.
As you can imagine, this resiliency scheme not only applies to heat and energy, but also to food, water, shelter, sanitation and finances. Documenting these extensions simply requires the addition of rows to the above table.
But again, planning and implementing is a lot of work, and requires sacrifice.
I have no idea what the future holds.
Reading through Fiat Money in France, history suggests that debt repayment, incurred through massive generational lies, is very costly. While I have no problem paying upfront, the majority will defer until Hell itself comes for collection.
However this time is different! Because inflation is global.
Who knows what governments will do.
I’m surprised utilities weren’t held hostage to encourage vaccination.
There’s no place to run, and unimaginable madness will shock every rational mind on the planet, which is why planning and implementing highly resilient systems is a must. And if you genuinely want the ability to help other people, maybe family members who refuse to listen and take action, that will be impossible if you fail to take care of your own household first.
Don’t put out other fires when you’re on fire.
If you have the ability, consider consolidating into multi-generational households and implementing these schemes, because not everyone has the same access to resources, and consider opportunities to leave urban areas and collaborate with the like-minded.
Being on the right side of the madness, both spiritually and mentally, is necessary.
But so is taking real action.
So, what are your plans?
Thanks for the article! Family members were skeptical until we had an unexpected 6 hour power outage. I used the 1000w portable solar generator to run the fridge, lights and television during primetime, lol. Crisis averted. I spent my Covid Reset stimulus $$ on a DIY Solar system with 6 Sok 100ah Lifepo4 batteries, 2 Epever 40A Mppts and 600 watts of folding and fixed 100 watt mono- panels. We have several backups for short-term heating w/ fireplace as well as for cooking, ice + styrofoam cooler + fan for AC, water filtration (calcium hypochlorite, survivor pro), hygiene (black bucket & pulley), self-defense (common calibers) and food cultivation, drying/canning and storage. We have a family cabin along the PA/NY border on 30 acres with abundant American Hophornbeam, Hickory, Black Walnut, old orchard Standard Apple and Sugar Maples. The neighboring farmer related through marriage has Belgian draught horses and a sizable beef herd. Population density at the cabin is barely 30 people and 80-100 whitetail per square mile. Hope for the best!
Excellent, practical well organized, readable. Highest recommendation as we go into the year of election driven political chaos here in the U Essen Ahhh.